It was a sneaky warm day, with a couple of isolated showers, but overall the day was a fantastic summer afternoon in August, and even better weekend.
We see a repeat tomorrow followed by an unsettled Tuesday. Overall, it looks like a decent week. Let's dive in.
Tomorrow looks like another nice but warm day. Humidity should be lower with a mix of sun and clouds, but the temperatures will be above normal again. The average high/low is 84/62 in Hartford and 83/68 in Bridgeport on August 14, and tomorrow should see highs in the mid to upper 80s. It's not quite time for my annual post, but the march toward fall has begun.
Tuesday looks more unsettled, with more humidity and showers through much of the day as another weak system and front passes through the region. I don't see a severe weather threat at this time, just a cloudy and wet day. It doesn't look like a major rain producer either.
The middle of the week looks quiet after our unsettled Tuesday, and it should be another nice stretch with dry conditions. I won't rule out an isolated shower each day, but temperatures look to be near normal with a mix of sun and clouds. Hard to believe that we're reaching the back half of August.
Friday looks like another unsettled day, with another trough swinging through the region. Not sure about severe potential at this time, but nothing significant stands out. As a result, expect a cloudy and wet day.
In the wake of the trough, however, it does look to go back to nice and quiet weather. Some guidance wants to start warming us up again on Sunday. We'll see if that signal becomes more muted during the week.
Monday: Mostly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 90%.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers 10%.
Thursday: Partly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of showers 10%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Some may be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Chance of rain 60%.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Final Note: The Tropics
Not much discussion has occurred yet on the Atlantic basin, which after a fast start has gone dead in July and through the first half of August. While a quiet Atlantic is normal during this period, we are fast approaching the climatological peak of the season--where the majority of named storms and hurricanes occur. This period is between August 20 and October 20, with the peak in September. A number of respected forecasting outlets, including NOAA continues to expect an above average season.
That may be hard to do given an El Nino, but the Atlantic itself is very warm with a lot of wave activity that has just happened to run into a hostile basin, mostly due to dry and stable air.
Things may be poised to wake up, however, as we see more vigorous waves starting to roll off Africa and the computer guidance taking note of a perhaps less hostile environment. Nothing threatens CT or the US, but as we approach the peak it is essential to remember that things can pick up quickly and it only takes one storm to make a bad season.
I'll have my annual tropical outlook in the next week.
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