We’ve had quite the mixed bag in the last 24 hours or so, with most of the state seeing an inch or two of snow before icing and finally rain, with temperatures currently being anywhere from the mid 30s in the colder valleys to near 50 on the coastline and in some elevated areas. Most areas should spike upwards in temps this evening if they have not warmed already, but that spike will be short lived as our first shot of arctic air in 2015 is en route, being dragged down from Canada by this departing system. As a result, temperatures tomorrow will be quite a bit colder than todays, with daytime highs being around the freezing mark(However, the climatological high will likely be higher due to overnight readings).
Colder air funnels into the area from the west Monday night into Tuesday, and it’s accompanied by a clipper system which has the potential to drop some light snows on the area Tuesday. Modeling over the last few runs has been shifting the area of highest impact to our south and leaving us with nothing but cold temps and some snow showers, but considering that clippers often correct north in the short term and the fact that most guidance still brings light snows into the area, will go with a 50% chance of snow for Tuesday in northern zones and 60% in southern zones, with a light accumulation (Max ceiling of around 2”, a dusting to an inch being more realistic) possible. With highs in the mid 20s expected and cold temps aloft, this should be more of a powdery snow than a heavy wet one, and enhanced snow ratios could be possible as a result.We’ll post a snowmap and more details on timing tomorrow night if needed, but in general, a relatively minor event is expected.
Wednesday will be chilly, with highs in the mid 20s, and will also feature a slight chance(30%) of snow showers from the arctic front that passes through during the day. The coldest airmass of the winter will then move in for Wednesday night, plunging lows below zero inland and into the single digits on the shoreline. If we have snowcover on the ground from the clipper system, expect temps to even be a few degrees lower due to radiational cooling. Here’s a map of the forecast lows Thursday morning from the GFS model along with the departure from normal.
In the next few days, we’ll revisit our winter outlook from back in November, examining what’s gone right, what’s gone wrong, and what’s changed in our thinking since November when we made the forecast. We’ll also have more on the clipper system tomorrow if needed, but until then, have a great evening and thanks for reading Southern Connecticut Weather!