It’s muggy, it’s rainy, it’s cloudy, will it ever end? Things look to clear up a little heading into the weekend, but unfortunately next week we are predicting a similar setup to the one we had this week. The good news is it will not be as bad as this week, in terms of rain and oppressive humidity. Let’s get started with the setup we have right now!
An omega blocking pattern, centered over the Western Mid-Atlantic is the culprit behind our wet weather. An upper level trough from Canada has dipped deep into the eastern half of the country, and it is trapped between two strong, high pressure systems. Now with the help of the Bermuda High, this system over the Mid-Atlantic is pulling moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico up towards the New England region. Water vapor imagery confirms this, and this southerly flow is advecting warm, moist tropical air which has been responsible for the flooding in much of the Southeast of the country.
The high moisture content of the onshore flow, coupled with the uneven heating of the land, combines to form these scattered showers that fire up throughout the day. These pockets of instability are mostly small scale, and short-lived rain showers that at most could bring a rumble of thunder, with some significant rainfall.
(Notice how the Bermuda high really influences the weather for New England)
Expect similar weather to what we had today. Scattered showers and thundershowers thanks to lower atmospheric instability. Dew points will continue to be high, and expect low level nimbostratus clouds with the occasional peak of sunshine throughout the day. As temperatures cool Tuesday night, there’s a chance for fog to develop late at night, as a result of the cooler temperatures and high dew points.
Wednesday - Thursday
Heavier precip looks to move through Wednesday, particularly in the second half of the day. This is a result of the main axis of precipitation moving closer to the area, particularly in the evening. 850 mb vorticity maps show organized pockets of instability ahead of the axis, which would indicate heavier and more steady rainfall. There could be a slight chance for localized flooding, so be aware when commuting. This is expected to continue until early Thursday morning, where the heavier precip moves out. There is a possibility for lingering showers for the remainder of the day, but the weather looks to improve as we head towards the latter portion of the week.
(NAM precipitation output for Wednesday and Thursday)
As our Mid-Atlantic system slowly trots itself out of New England, we can still expect to see the possibility for scattered showers Friday, but expect improving weather by Saturday. A drier air mass will move into New England, bringing dew points down and giving us brief respite from the muggy air. As the skies clear Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will look to climb to seasonal levels, and it should be comfortable weather for your weekend.
Another upper level trough settles into the middle of the country, and again it looks to pull moist tropical air from the Gulf towards New England once again. This similar setup would make for a wet and muggy Monday, but right now models show a much weaker trough than what we had this week. Unfortunately, models suggest that it looks to be a wet start to August, but we can only speculate as of now.
(500 mb heights indicate a similar setup we had this week, but less potent)
Tuesday: Scattered showers and cloudy. Highs in the low 80s. Very humid. Chance of rain 60%.
Wednesday: Scattered showers in the morning, with steadier rainfall in the evening. Chance for localized flooding. Humid. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of rain 80%.
Thursday: Rain in the morning, tapering off to scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs in the low 80s. Humid. Chance of rain 70%.
Friday: Cloudy, chance of a shower or two. Humid. Highs in the mid 80s.
Saturday: Cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
Monday: Chance for showers. Humid. Highs in the lower 80s.
Thank you for reading and enjoy your evening!