First, let's tackle the mid-week event. A low in Quebec, and it's associated cold front, track slowly east throughout the day tomorrow, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the forecast from the early afternoon hours onward. As it reaches our area Tuesday night, it slows, and modeling shows a connection with a surface low tracking NE from the Appalachians. This low has an impressive connection to gulf moisture(Reminiscent of the look of some of our bigger snowmakers!), and, combined with impressive Precipitable Water values, will result in widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the state from Tuesday night through Wednesday and into Thursday, when coverage will diminish as the front eventually clears the area and shifts offshore, allowing for more of a widespread light rain to develop instead of rain of a showery nature with varying intensities.
Modeling is consistent in showing a "screw zone" developing between two areas of enhanced precipitation, but at this point, it's all over the map exactly where that will be. Regardless, all of the state looks to be in for a good soaking starting tomorrow afternoon, the only question being just how much of a soaking will it be in some areas.
Here's a look at total rain through Thursday morning on the various guidance.
This system moves out to sea Thursday, but stalls, continuing to provide scattered showers in the forecast for Thursday, especially in further eastern areas, before all eyes shift to the next system for Friday into the weekend...
Here is a smattering of the various model guidance for the storm.
GGEM, showing a storm moving almost due north up the Atlantic, brushing the New England coastline, and then plowing into Canada. Heaviest rains move from interior NY and PA into New England.
We'll have much more on the potential weekend system on Wednesday, but for now, be aware that a significant storm is possible.
Temperatures will be above normal tomorrow, then below normal throughout the rest of the period.
Here are the dailies:
Tuesday: A chance of showers in the afternoon, otherwise, mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be heavy. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of rain is 95%.
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms, otherwise, cloudy, with highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain is 70%.
Friday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Sunday: A chance of rain, which could be heavy at times, otherwise, cloudy, with strong winds possible, and highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain is 60%.
Stay dry, stay safe(Remember: Turn around, don't drown!), and stay tuned to Southern Connecticut Weather for Connecticut's number one weather coverage of this and every meteorological event! Next update coming Wednesday, or sooner if needed. Thanks for reading!