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Forecasters Discussion for 9/8/2017

9/8/2017

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Good afternoon to you from Southern Connecticut Weather!

It’s a beautiful fall day here in Connecticut, but down in the Caribbean, it’s a different story as Hurricane Irma, one of the most powerful hurricanes in history, completes its assault on the islands and turns its attention to Florida for later in the weekend. Guidance is coming into good agreement on a landfall in South Florida and a track through the state up into Georgia and potentially the Carolinas. Catastrophic damage is expected to occur throughout the state, and hundreds of thousands are under mandatory evacuation orders, with many many more in a situation where they should leave regardless of what any order may say.

Here is a look at the latest run of the GFS, showing the consensus track for the system. We will see a landfall in Florida by Sunday morning, and the storm will slowly move northwest into the southeastern states before dissipating by midweek.
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There really isn’t much more to say about Irma that hasn’t already been said. Regardless of exactly where the landfall occurs, there will be extremely strong winds, a substantial storm surge, and potentially significant flooding. Therefore, instead of focusing on the minute details of the track, I think it is much more important to highlight what needs to be done to prepare for the storm. If you have family or friends in Florida, ideally, they should be evacuating and en route to a safe location outside the path of the storm. Information and guidelines on a successful evacuation can be found here. Many airlines are offering discounted fares out of Florida through the weekend and are adding additional flights to accommodate those needing to leave. If people insist on staying, they should have a several week supply of drinking water and non-perishable food. Widespread power outages are likely, and it could take weeks to be restored. Have flashlights and extra batteries available. Here is detailed information from FEMA on how to successfully prepare for a hurricane. Let us know if you have specific hurricane questions and we will try to answer them as best we can, but the overall message is the most important; this is a life threatening system and individuals in its path either need to evacuate or be prepared.
Meanwhile, in Connecticut, we’re looking at a tranquil weekend. Temperatures will continue to run below normal, with highs a few degrees on either side of 70 for both Saturday and Sunday. Could see a few widely scattered showers tomorrow afternoon, but otherwise conditions will be dry and mostly sunny. Moving into next week, we’ll warm up to start the workweek with highs in the mid 70s on Monday and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Tuesday. We could see some showers on Wednesday as the remnants of Irma make their way north, but nothing even remotely close to hurricane conditions will be seen in Connecticut; if I didn’t tell you these showers were from Irma, they would seem just like any other passing shower. Dry weather returns to end the workweek with highs in the mid 70s on Thursday and upper 70s on Friday.
The Dailies
Saturday: A slight chance of showers, otherwise, mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the lower 70s.
Monday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Wednesday: A chance of showers, otherwise, partly cloudy, with highs in the mid 70s. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 70s.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs in the upper 70s.

Have a great weekend and thank you for reading SCW!
-SA

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