Currently: Cool high pressure over Ern Quebec dominates our weather.
Tonight: With good radiatonal cooling conditions expected and fresh cold air advection, I'll go a touch lower than all available guidance. This should effectively kill off most of the mosquitoes in the state (unless they seek shelter). Look for lows mainly in the 40s, but 30s should be widespread north of I 84.
Tomorrow: With plenty of sun, low humidity, and soil moisture lower than it has been all summer I"ll go warmer than guidance. A beautiful day, after a chilly morning, is in store, with highs generally 70 to 75.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: We'll continue to see a trend of large diurnal ranges, or differences between daily low and high temperatures. As high pressure shifts offshore, look for a warmer day. There has been a downward trend with Thursday night's lows, and this has resulted in a tick or two downward with Friday's highs, since days are now only 12 hours long. Guidance is in fairly good agreement, but in a nod to trends, I'll shave a degree or so off guidance high temperatures. So expect high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, but a few degrees cooler in the NW Hills.
Long Term (the weekend and beyond): For now, the only active period in the long term looks to be from Monday afternoon until Tuesday morning, as a slow-moving cold front tries to move into the Bermuda Ridge. Models are trending wetter with this feature and I would not be surprised if this turns into a "multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy downpours" type of event, like we've seen most of this summer. The pattern fits the same type of events we've had earlier in the summer, and with the ridge and temperatures (as well as humidity levels) modeled to be much higher than they should be this time of year, why not?
But before we get there, we have a very warm and tranquil weekend coming up. As far as temperatures through the long term period, I did not make many changes to guidance, other than tweaking here and there for local influences. The only exception to the rule is Monday, where models have trended cloudier and wetter, and are also hinting at the potential for onshore flow. Therefore, MOS guidance looks quite unrealistic, and I chopped off 5 to 8 degrees from advertised guidance. So the dailies in the long term look something like this:
Saturday and Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the low 80s Saturday and 80 to 85 Sunday. One or two spots in the I 91 corridor could actually hit the upper 80s on Sunday.
Monday: Increasing clouds with showers and thunderstorms late. Highs around 70.
Tuesday and Wednesday: After a chance of a shower or a thunderstorm Tuesday morning, clearing. Still above normal temperatures, but not quite as warm, with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday and low 70s on Wednesday. An onshore flow could make it cooler along the south coast Wednesday.
Looking into the long range, temperatures really look above, to even much above normal, as far as the eye can see. As I stated in the opener, the only fly in the ointment would be a backdoor cold front which would aid in the cold air just to the north of the border seeping southward. Models have not handled that well this month at all, so it is a distinct possibility. There are some hints that the pattern will re-orient itself in a big way before the middle of October, which would result in a major pattern change across the US. This has the looks of a pattern that could flip like a switch, and not be a gradual step down.
Now, let's take a look at weather systems slated to affect the area this week. Since we only have one real system to speak of, I decided to post GFS low temperatures for tonight and Monday evening's system. Looking at the GFS temperature map here, you can see that low temperatures (which are 2 degrees lower than this map, because I was unable to actually retrieve the low temperature map) are in the 40s throughout the state. Subtracting for climatology on radiative nights means that anyone north of I 84 can easily be in the 30s.