Currently: Low pressure over Srn IL is the culprit for the rain over the area right now.
Rest of today/tonight: Rain should fall heavy at times and gradually wind down overnight. There is a chance that the rain ends as some snow showers tomorrow morn, but that chance has really dwindled in the latest model runs. Therefore, I will not be mentioning any accumulations in this package, and a map will not be issued. As for tomorrow morn's lows, I stuck pretty clsoe to guidance. Lows should range from 25-30 degrees across the state. Winds will really begin to ramp up after midnight, with the strongest winds from late tonight into tomorrow morning. Wind advisories will probably be issued by NWS w/their afternoon packages. However, advisories or not, winds will still gust to 40-50 MPH, so keep that in mind. The winds will do one good thing, however. They should aid in rapid drying of the ground, which should prevent most flash freeze concerns. Even so, do exercise a little extra caution tomorrow AM if you notice the temp is below freezing and there is any standing water left over.
Tomorrow: Any snow showers should be gone by dawn. Winds diminish during the afternoon. Sunny and chilly. Went close to temp guidance, which is generally low 40s for highs. Normally, with strong cold air advection, I'd go under guidance, but we're at day 1.5 here and temp guidance should be able to handle that. In addition, the sun angle is very strong this time of yr, and that should aid in warming.
Tomorrow night/Sat: Beautiful day in store on Sat. High pressure passes overhead, so temps should warm up rapidly. Again, went fairly close to guidance on temps. Highs should top out 50-55. I do want to point out that it could be a good idea to go a bit warmer than guidance over the I 91 corridor, where highs could get to the 54-57 deg range.
Long Term: Sun-next Thurs: This period is mainly uneventful. High pressure will pass offshore. However, it will not be as warm as it could be with a high offshore, because the high will park itself near Nova Scotia. This insures more of an E-NE flow, which transports relatively cool, oceanic air to the region. However, most days will be sunny, and that's a mitigating effect, so it will still be rather nice.
I went a couple degrees higher than guidance on temps for most locations on Sun, with the exceptions being the NW-NE hills (chilly start) and the S coast (sea breezes). Most of the state makes a run at 60, but those aforementioned places stay in the mid 50s.
The GGEM guidance shows an offshore coastal low Mon night into Tues much further W than other guidance. Should this verify, light rain/drizzle would be likely along the S coast. However, since no other guidance really shows this right now, I'll leave it out of the fcst.
Went real close to guidance on Mon, as onshore flow becomes "deeper", so temps should be pretty uniform across the state- mid to upper 50s for highs.
For Tue, again followed close to guidance, with most places in the upper 50s. However, I did go a bit cooler on the S coast, w/the potential for at least more clouds from the offshore low, so mid 50s there.
For Wed, I went a couple deg below guidance. There will be an increase in clouds ahead of the next system. Combine that w/continued onshore flow and I think guidance looks a bit too warm. Highs in the mid 50s for all.
For Thu, the next system will approach the area. A low going W of us will try to bring a warm front thru. Historical knowledge tells me that when you have deep onshore flow and it's still March, warm fronts don't blast right thru the area. Therefore, I went 5 to 8 deg below guidance, and I have chc of light rain/drizzle for most of the day. I have highs around 50, maybe a deg or two warmer inland.
No graphics needed today. There is no snow map to speak of, plus the only real solid precip occurring is in the near term.
As far as long range, temps look to be generally above normal. There could be a couple soaking rain events to close out March. As dry as it's been, we could actually finish the month close to norm, if those events verify.
See you next week!