New England is a beautiful place, and this weekend is a prime illustration. At a time when southern California is being hit with an extremely rare tropical storm and flooding event, the Midwest deals with an exceptional heat wave where one station in Kansas today reported a heat index of 134 degrees, and parts of the south continues to bake in a drought, we're quiet and seasonable.
A mostly quiet week is on tap for Connecticut, with a few chances of showers. Let's talk about that and briefly discuss the tropics.
Tomorrow is our first chance of showers, but it's not that high. Most of the day will be quiet, with warm and mostly cloudy conditions. During the late afternoon and evening we will see an increasing chance of showers, but most will stay dry. If you like warmth enjoy tomorrow. It may be our last above normal high temperature day for a while.
The middle of the week looks excellent and more like September than August. This period will have highs in the mid to upper 70s, with dry conditions and low humidity. Evenings will be cool with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. It'll be wonderful. Thursday evening may have increasing clouds in advance of our next rain chance, but this looks like an excellent stretch.
This period starts with an unsettled Friday. We should have a trough move through the region, bringing rain. The day doesn't look particularly good, but we should clear by Saturday, bringing a nice weekend. Of course, we'll watch for timing. It doesn't look like severe thunderstorms are a risk on Friday either but again, we'll be watching. In the wake of the system, Saturday and Sunday look good with highs in the 70s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers or storms. Highs in the low to mid 80s. Chance of rain 30%.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Chance of showers late. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 20%.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chance of rain 50%
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
We have five areas of interest in the Atlantic. Invest 91L in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to become a tropical system before it hits the south Texas coast/Mexico border region. TD Six is a dud and likely to die shortly. Tropical Storm Emily and the high development area in the eastern Atlantic are likely to stay out to sea, which leaves us to Tropical Storm Franklin.
Franklin is not threat to Connecticut right now, but I bring it up because the upper level steering pattern is quite uncertain for where this goes after it is drawn northward from the Caribbean by a trough.
Our Friday system may play a role in the eventual track of this one and while out to sea is currently favored, there is a chance this is a close call with Atlantic Canada, which means I'll be keeping a close eye on the pattern.
With anomalous troughing all summer in the east and ridging likely between our big CONUS ridge bringing Midwest heat and a trending subtropical ridge on the guidance in the Atlantic, this one is interesting to this forecaster.
Now that it's August 20, it's time for the annual tropical peak outlook I've done in recent years. Expect it soon.
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