Currently: Cold front mostly just west of the state, sending up little bands of showers, but nothing too heavy. Low pressure along the front was over the Hudson Valley.
Tonight: The front will gradually pull away and lose its influence on the area. Pcpn will taper off from W to E, w/the last vestiges pulling offshore before midnight. I went a touch below guidance, due to CAA, but not as cool as I could go, due to clouds. Lows generally near 60.
Tomorrow: Sunny, breezy, and beautiful. Guidance accepted. Highs in the mid 70s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: Sunny and continued pleasant temps. Once again, guidance temps accepted. Highs in the mid 70s, except some upper 70s along I 91.
Long Term: The main frontal passages in the long term are centered around Tue and Thu.
Sun turns much warmer. With plenty of sun, temps rise into the low 80s.
For Mon, we ride similar conditions, although a sea breeze near the S coast could keep temps there a touch cooler.
For Tue, the next cold front approaches. The new GFS is very robust with precip. However, the NBM is much lighter. For now, kept POPS at chance. Either way, it probably turns out cloudier than the NBM would like, so I chopped a few deg off temps and went w/highs in the upper 70s.
For Wed, we're in between fronts. The air mass aloft is 3-7 deg cooler, but since we'll have sun, sfc temps are only a deg or so cooler than those of Tue.
For Thu, the next front approaches. Once again, the GFS has a pretty strong pcpn signal, but the NBM does not, so compromised, and went w/chance POPS this far out. I did chop a significant amount off NB temps for Thu, due to potential clouds and pcpn. Also the NBM has a tendency to not recognize advection at that range. So look for highs generally 70-75.
The long range does not look to feature any major pattern changes, at least the first half of the long range. I am always cautious looking further out in the long range, because models tend to rush any pattern changes at that range. The GFS does show some signs of another step down to fall around the 20-22 time frame. If we account for the bias of it being too fast, we can slow it down to 9/25-27 or so, which is not far off from the climo calendar, if you will.
No graphics today, no solid systems to track!