Currently: Complex wx pattern w/a series of lows from SC to NYS. Rain is moving NNW-SSE thru central NJ and central NYS, but falling apart as it tries to move slowly E. Most, if not all, of this rain should dry up before reaching our state. Meanwhile, a cold front was over CPA. This front will clear the region tonight, Behind this front, we should finally see the wx return to something closer to norm for this time of yr.
Tonight: Went fairly close to guidance for most places, but a bit under in our normally radiative spots. Feels weird to talk about that this time of yr, but radiators have been radiating this month and that continues another night. Generally upper 50s tonight, give or take a few deg.
Tomorrow: Again very close to guidance, just smoothed it out in places. A nice, sunny day, w/highs generally in the upper 70s.
Tomorrow Night/Sat: NBM looks solid, as high press moves into the traditional "Bermuda High" position and we can get the heat cranking. Looks like a solid 85-90 statewide.
Long Term (Sun and beyond): Heat continues one more day Sun. Again followed close to guidance, but we could turn out a deg or two cooler if we get any "spillover" clouds from sys out W. Still and all, solid mid to upper 80s+ statewide.
For Mon, frontal sys approaches. If the front is faster, as the GFS suggests, then instability is limited w/a morning fropa. Models have been trending faster, so leaned that way. This also affects temps. I went about 5 deg below the NBM guidance, which would be highs of only 70-75. Now, if the front is slower, temps could be much warmer, and storms a lot stronger, stay tuned!
For Tue, a nice day behind the fropa. Cold air advection fairly strong for this time of yr, so I went a smidge below temp guidance. High temps generally in the mid to upper 70s, w/an 80 deg reading not out of the question along the I 91 corridor.
For Wed, we start to warm up, w/high press shifting offshore. Generally followed temp guidance, w/cosmetic tweaks here and there. Highs 80-85 w/plenty of sun.
For Thu, we cont to warm up a bit more, as Bermuda High flexes its muscle again. For now, reserved and followed guidance w/generalized mid 80s thru the state, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it ended up a bit warmer than that.
Long Range: Maybe a few more hot days, but all in all, looks like the dominant pattern is one of onshore flow and anafronts, which would not be conducive at all for sustained heat. Some of us predicted a cool summer back in Jan...
Personal Note: I have not been able to do one of these in quite a while, due to work sched. I do not know when I will write the next one, but when I can, I will be here!
I have only one graphic to post today and it is of the Mon potential rainfall. There should be solid rainfall for the area. The biggest question is frontal timing, which would effect temps and any potential strength of t-storms.
This map is valid midday, and you can see the frontal passage is already occurring in our area. If you wanted severe wx, you'd need a later fropa.