Happy Monday! Hopefully you were able to enjoy the nice weather we had today. The remainder of the week is looking quiet and warm, but we may be unsettled by the weekend as we watch a potential pattern shift out of this warm regime. Let's get to it!
As you can see, October has been warm. The pattern has favored warmer than normal conditions, and much warmer with regard to nighttime lows. October is a big month for transitioning to fall, and although it has been quite nice temperature wise with highs in the 70s, this time of year highs should be in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s inland. By the end of the month, average highs are in the 50s and lows in the 30s (a touch warmer at the shoreline of course).
The lack of a freeze has led to a slower transition in foliage season and insects sticking around! This week will continue the warm period. This is also the season where we see foggy conditions in the morning, especially in the valleys. Tomorrow will start off cloudy, but we should see decreasing clouds during the day and...you guessed it, warm conditions for this time of year. Highs will be in the low 70s.
Wednesday will be similar, but should be mostly sunny throughout the day. Highs in the low 70s, with lows crisp but still warmer than normal with lows in the mid to upper 50s.
Well, if you think the low 70s are warm (and they are for this time of year) how about highs in the mid to upper 70s? That's what we're looking at to end the work week, with a touch more humidity as well but nothing like September. It'll be nice, still, with some increasing clouds coming later on Friday as we head into the weekend and our only real rain chance of the week.
This is where the pattern shift comes in, and the weekend is looking unsettled at this point as a result. We will be watching a strong front and possible storm system developing across the middle of the country and moving our way. The storm system is likely to stay well to our north, but Saturday currently looks like the day we are most likely to see rain showers. It's too soon to call it a washout, but it could trend that way given what we're seeing right now.
Sunday looks better, and cooler, but there could be lingering showers depending on whether the front timing slows down. For now, I think Sunday is fine, but will have a slight chance of showers and cloudy conditions becoming more sunny as the day progresses.
Monday is looking a touch cooler than Sunday, especially at night, and should be clear and nice as things stand.
Below is the GFS depiction of temperature departures through the weekend. As you can see, we start off with a "torch" but things do become more seasonable by the start of next week. Long term, we probably stay warm overall during October but as GP indicated in his forecast before, there could be a longer term pattern change coming. For now, we'll have to settle for a brief shift.
For those wondering, a warm October doesn't have an impact on winter.
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. Highs in the low 70s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday: Mostly sunny early with increasing clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Chance of rain 50%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with showers early followed by clearing. Highs in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 30%.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Finally, a note about hurricane season. Things have quieted down dramatically, and given the overall steering pattern, it looks like the window for threats to New England from tropical systems has come to an end. If that changes, we'll be sure to let you know, but now we're heading into (rainy) nor'easter season which can be strong in their own right!
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