Let's get right to it. Our relatively quiet pattern is coming to an end. As GP mentioned a while back, the last week of October looked ripe for a pattern change. The week ahead will bring a more amplified pattern, with multiple rain chances and two potentially significant storms.
Before we even get to the period of interest, we have to deal with tonight and Monday. Our first in a series of systems is on its way as I write. Rain will move into the state overnight. The heaviest rain will stay to the north of the state, but we should see periods of moderate to heavy rain overnight into the morning, especially in northern CT. Showers will be possible through the day in advance of the bigger system. Highs will be near to slightly below normal with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.
As mentioned earlier, this is our SCW Period of Interest. The forecast is complicated. What we do know is that a big storm will develop. Two pieces of energy will merge off the East Coast, creating a large and powerful storm. One piece of energy may very well be more tropical/subtropical in nature, which doesn't change our forecast much, but increases the ceiling for rainfall depending on the track of the low as a warm core system can more efficiently produce precipitation. Below is the 18z GFS depiction of what I'm talking about.
High Wind Watches have been issued to the east of CT, and while these watches could be expanded into CT, I think the highest wind gusts will be along the SE Massachusetts coast and Cape Cod. For CT, this is our early expectation:
- Rain (from this system) beginning in CT early Tuesday morning and lasting into Wednesday morning.
- The rain won't always be heavy, but there will be periods of heavy rain that will cause travel issues.
- A widespread 3-6" of rain is possible and depending on the track isolated higher amounts are possible.
- Flash flooding and river/stream flooding will be possible.
- Windy conditions will be possible, with peak wind gusts of 35-45mph inland and 45-55mph at the shoreline, especially in SE CT. There may be some higher wind potential, but I am hedging conservative for now as it's possible the state is "wedged" into colder conditions that make mixing wind to the surface less efficient.
- Scattered power outages will be possible, as a combination of saturated soils, mostly leafed out trees, and strong winds cause some scattered tree damage, especially in southern and eastern CT.
- Overall, we're anticipating a moderate impact event based on the current data. This may change depending on the storm track and placement of the low level jet.
If we are truly wedged in, highs will likely be in the 40s for most, especially inland, on both days. Highs in the 50s would be possible along the shore. The rain should depart by noon on Wednesday, and we should see gradually clearing conditions that will bring us our first and likely only rain break of the week.
There is still a lot to sort out with our period of interest.
Below are the Euro and GFS depictions of total precipitation between now and Wednesday afternoon. Images courtesy of weathermodels.com.
We see a brief break in the wake of our coastal low, and Thursday looks nice with mostly sunny conditions and seasonable temperatures. Like I said earlier, it doesn't last long. By Friday, we're back to mostly cloudy conditions with showers possible as our next system approaches.
Obviously, this is an important weekend for many, as it's Halloween on Sunday! It'd be great to have nice weather for the kiddos to get outside! Sadly, early indications aren't too great. A low will approach from the west and cutoff, meaning it'll become a slow moving mess of a system. As it stands, the bulk of the rain looks to occur on Saturday, and the rain could be heavy at times. That day is looking close to a washout depending on the timing of the storm.
Sunday is up in the air. As the storm moves east, it could spur secondary coastal low development that would bring more rainy and cool conditions through the day on Sunday. For now, I'll keep a chance of showers in the forecast, but Sunday could go either way depending on the speed of the storm.
Monday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 70%.
Tuesday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly cloudy with rain and windy conditions. Rain will be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 100%.
Wednesday: SCW Period of Interest. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and windy conditions early, followed by mostly cloudy conditions. Rain will be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Chance of rain 70%.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs in the low 60s.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible. Highs in the low 60s. Chance of rain 50%.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Chance of rain 60%.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Chance of rain 40%.
As always, please like, share, and interact with us on our social media--on Facebook to share our discussions, and follow us on Twitter @southernctwx to retweet our posts. Hit the buttons below to join.
Thank you for reading SCW.