Currently: Weak low pressure right over NYC and associated stationary front nearly over the state. Most temps across the state as of this writing are in the upper 30s to near 40, w/the exception being the SE coast, where temps have soared into the 50s! The frontal feature and associated temp boundaries are not expected to move much the rest of the day, so temps won't, either.
Tonight: I have cautiously gone below temp guidance, w/the expectation that we get a solid 4-6 hr window for radiational cooling. Dew points drop pretty substantially, which should allow some decoupling. So I have gone a bit below guidance, but not as much as I could on a great radiative night. Look for lows generally in the upper 20s.
Tomorrow: Clouds increase ahead of our next system. That should cause guidance temps to be a deg or two too warm. Therefore, I've lowered it just a bit, and will call for mid to upper 30s for highs.
Tomorrow Night/Fri: Here is our next system. A system will approach from the west and transfer to a new low developing near the coast. Right now, the indications are that this will not be an ideal scenario for heavy snow in this area for two reasons: First, the transfer will happen too late, and secondly, the storm will be flying. We will not have to worry about pcpn type, as all areas will see all snow. A snow map will likely be issued later today. Generally, advisory level totals are expected, w/2-4" across the Wrn half of the state and 4-6" across the Ern half. Across Wrn CT, this could literally be a five hour burst of moderate snow. Snow lingers a bit longer in E CT. Winds will not really be an issue during the storm, but could gust to 40 MPH later Friday, as the storm bombs and pulls away. Due to snowpack, snow to start the day, and strong cold air advection, I've gone a few deg below temp guidance for Fri. Expect temps to stay below freezing all day, and maybe stay in the upper 20s in the NW and NE hills!
Long Term: Main concerns in the long term period are very cold wx and another (minor) wintry threat on Sun.
Sat: Guidance looks pretty good on temps. I made some local adjustments here and there, but the overall flavor of the guidance looks reasonable. Generally highs very similar to those of Fri.
Sun: A warm front/clipper system approaches from the west. As overrunning moisture moves in, sfc temps may still be below freezing. Models are notoriously bad at low-level cold air and even so are hinting at freezing rain potential Sun afternoon. NBM guidance looks completely lost, and as such, I chopped 5 to 9 deg off of it. Mid 30s for highs seems pretty realistic. Then Sun night, an Arctic front approaches and pcpn could turn to snow. At this time, unless some surprise like a wave of low pressure developed, a period of snow or squalls along the front, w/accums under an inch is all that can be expected. It could still cause problems for Mon morn's commute, however, as the combo of a fresh "flash freeze" and light snowfall have been known to cause car accidents before.
Mon: Cold air behind the first polar front begins advecting in. I've gone just a tad below guidance with this, since there is moderate cold air advection. With a gusty breeze, highs generally around freezing in the warm spots and upper 20s in the cold spots, so it will be a cold day!
Tue: Arctic high centered near the area, breezy and very cold. Guidance looks fine for a D+6 lead time, so followed it closely. Highs generally mid 20s, except low 20s NW and NE highlands. It should be noted that a snow shower is not out of the question Mon or Tue, as the combo of LES streamers and the fronts could generate some showers. The highest chance is across the NW hills, as climo would dictate.
Wed: W/high pressure modifying, temps moderate a little, but still cold. Temp guidance is acceptable and followed, w/just a few local, minor tweaks. Highs generally close to the freezing mark.
The long range looks to establish/continue a cold, active pattern, so there should be winter wx threats this month.
I am not going to put any graphics myself, but stay tuned for a snow map!
See you next week!